Risk
Analysis – Quantitative,
decision tree analysis
Another common tool in risk analysis is called
decision tree analysis. This technique is used to help choose
a course of action when different options are available and
the outcomes are uncertain.
Decision points and risk events
are represented by nodes. Each possible outcome is represented
as a branch form that node,
and the probability of that outcome is recorded for each
branch. A series of decisions and outcomes are represented
by additional
nodes and branches downstream. The tree continues until all
possible decisions/outcomes are elaborated.
The value of any chain of events and decisions
is the product of the probabilities along the chain multiplied
by the value of the outcome. Risk management suggests you should
take action to avoid paths with higher risk value and select
the path with the least risk value. |